In the European Union (EU), over a 5-year period (2020-2025), overall cancer mortality rates were predicted to fall by 3.5% and 1.2% for males and females. Marked decreases in breast cancer mortality in the EU were observed for women aged 50-69 (−9.8%) and 70-79 years (−12.4%).
Cancer mortality projections for 2025 in the EU remain favourable, except for pancreatic cancer for both sexes and lung and bladder cancer for women according to analysis of derived population data and death certificates for all cancers and major sites. The findings were published by Prof. Carlo La Vecchia of the Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan in Milan, Italy and colleagues on 11 March 2025 in the Annals of Oncology.
Since 2011, this group of the authors has been projecting cancer mortality figures for the current year in major European countries and in the EU. Over the past 15 years, mortality rates have decreased in both sexes and in all countries considered, more in males than in females, due to more widespread smoking cessation. However, the total number of cancer deaths, and therefore the public health burden of cancer, has not decreased due to population ageing. Additionally, there are still considerable differences in cancer mortality between countries, with higher rates in Central and Eastern Europe.
The authors derived population data and death certificates for all cancers and major sites for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the UK since 1970, from the World Health Organization and United Nations databases. Estimates for 2025 were computed by linear regression on recent trends identified through Poisson joinpoint regression, considering the slope of the most recent trend segment. Deaths averted from 1989 to 2025 were calculated by applying the 1988 peak rate to subsequent population data.
The study team estimated 1280000 cancer deaths in the EU in 2025, corresponding to age-standardised rates (ASRs) of 120.9/100 000 males (−3.5% versus 2020) and 79.1/100 000 females (−1.2%). In the UK, they predicted 173000 cancer deaths and ASRs of 101.2/100 000 males (−10.1%) and 82.1/100 000 females (−6.3%).
In the EU, favourable trends are predicted for major neoplasms, except pancreatic cancer, in males (+2.0%) and females (+3.0%), and lung (+3.8%) and bladder (+1.9%) cancers among females. Breast cancer mortality showed favourable trends in all countries. Substantial decreases were predicted for EU females aged 50-69 years (−9.8%) and 70-79 years (−12.4%).
Between 1989 and 2025, the study team estimated about 6.8 million averted cancer deaths in the EU, including over 373000 breast cancer deaths. Corresponding numbers for the UK were 1500000 and 197000.
The authors concluded that breast cancer rates in the EU have fallen by 30% since 1990, due to advances in prevention, treatment, and early detection. Contrasting trends in lung cancer among males and females reflect differing tobacco smoking patterns. Female lung cancer mortality is still increasing in the EU, though less than in the previous decade. Persistent unfavourable pancreatic cancer trends can be related to the increasing prevalence of obesity and limited therapeutic advances, requiring continued attention.
They commented that it is important to continue tobacco control to maintain and improve the favourable trends in cancer mortality in Europe. In 2023, a smoking prevalence of 24% was reported for the EU, indicating the need for strong and continued action on tobacco control measures. The increasing prevalence of overweight requires monitoring and control. In addition, controlling alcohol consumption and optimising population screening for early detection of cervical, breast, and colorectal cancer remain key strategies for cancer control.
Reference
Santucci C, Mignozzi S, Levi F, et al. European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2025 with focus on breast cancer. Annals of Oncology;36(4):460-468.